Exponential curves, whether rising or falling, change our world. A short note on some to keep an eye on to not miss the next mega trends.
The human family seems to be hard wired to always see the world as falling apart and things getting worse (especially as we get older). However if we look at one of the most fundamental exponential curves – world GDP – we see that given some time the world is becoming a better place…
The most well known curve in the technology community seems to be the one regarding computational power, i.e. Moore’s law. Notably this curve is coming to ‘the end’ of its prediction given literal physical limits.
Other exponential curves that have enabled the IT revolution to generate all parts of our lives include storage capacity (Kryder’s law) and data transmission (Butter’s law). The cost of solar is also one that many people cite.
Some exponential curves (e.g. non-commercial flight distances flown) look like they are slowing down in the recent past but if you believe in human ingenuity and the projects (such as SpaceX) then this curve should pick up in the near future again.
However, the two exponential curves that I believe will shape our next decade are the cost of genetic sequencing and one of C02 in our atmosphere. One of declining cost and the other of rising concentration levels (of C02) in our atmosphere.
Exponential curves are hard to grasp with our mammalian mind but if recognised and leveraged can fundamentally change the lives we live and the quality of life we all share. Potentially, a part of the solution and the next game-changing companies will leverage the innovation in genetics (next generation sequencing) and BioTech/SynBio to tackle runaway greenhouse gases and waste created from human activities.